Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008055 0.009089 0.010223 0.011559 0.013096 0.014812 0.016878
2024-10-20 0.006166 0.007500 0.009091 0.011139 0.013723 0.016894 0.021116
2024-10-27 0.005170 0.006602 0.008406 0.010866 0.014170 0.018497 0.024675
2024-11-03 0.004585 0.006089 0.008072 0.010910 0.014923 0.020479 0.028901
2024-11-10 0.004274 0.005877 0.008076 0.011361 0.016231 0.023323 0.034691
2024-11-17 0.003836 0.005429 0.007686 0.011182 0.016576 0.024776 0.038572
2024-11-24 0.003533 0.005134 0.007473 0.011219 0.017219 0.026721 0.043461
2024-12-01 0.003212 0.004775 0.007121 0.010990 0.017395 0.027917 0.047240
2024-12-08 0.003043 0.004629 0.007073 0.011226 0.018337 0.030461 0.053708
2024-12-15 0.002841 0.004410 0.006887 0.011209 0.018839 0.032298 0.059142
2024-12-22 0.002567 0.004054 0.006447 0.010716 0.018448 0.032483 0.061441
2024-12-29 0.002405 0.003865 0.006265 0.010647 0.018801 0.034064 0.066711
2025-01-05 0.002359 0.003872 0.006420 0.011208 0.020413 0.038300 0.078308
2025-01-12 0.002156 0.003595 0.006066 0.010808 0.020157 0.038856 0.082159
2025-01-19 0.001996 0.003380 0.005800 0.010544 0.020132 0.039864 0.087177
2025-01-26 0.001896 0.003263 0.005700 0.010586 0.020724 0.042237 0.095790
2025-02-02 0.001858 0.003255 0.005798 0.011021 0.022181 0.046683 0.110290
2025-02-09 0.001744 0.003098 0.005603 0.010848 0.022315 0.048178 0.117614
2025-02-16 0.001666 0.003001 0.005514 0.010884 0.022909 0.050814 0.128463
2025-02-23 0.001564 0.002853 0.005314 0.010663 0.022892 0.051982 0.135496
2025-03-02 0.001520 0.002812 0.005322 0.010891 0.023939 0.055907 0.151199
2025-03-09 0.001453 0.002722 0.005224 0.010875 0.024406 0.058433 0.163321
2025-03-16 0.001345 0.002543 0.004932 0.010398 0.023701 0.057815 0.165666